incub3.org

Contrary to popular belief, recessions aren’t all about doom and gloom. Recessions, in fact, are like coins, except that both sides can be ‘up’ simultaneously. For instance, international tourism suffers in a recession, but alternative forms of entertainment such as movie-going and local tourism have been known to grow during recessions.

The human mind isn’t wired to hold the opposing viewpoints that recessions can be good and bad simultaneously, so we will tend to neglect the fact that recessions are, in fact, excellent times to fire up your entrepreneurial spirit and break out of the slump.

The startup bug has already hit Manhattan, where a growing group of laid-off finance professionals have been assigned to startups as advisers. These nascent startups or expanding firms are part of a scheme jointly launched by the New York City Economic Development Corporation and the Levin Institute of the State University of New York. Did I mention that these finance experts are working for free?

An article in the New Yorker magazine makes the case that companies of all sizes should take the opportunity afforded in a recession to grab market share. One important line describes the difference between risk and uncertainty. Economist Frank Knight said “Risk describes the situation where you have a sense of the range of possibilities and likelihood of possible outcomes. Uncertainty describes a situation where its not even clear what might happen, let alone how likely the possible outcomes are.” However, research has shown that spending on acquisition, advertising and R&D yields significant returns to companies.

There is, however, always a risk of losing your way. Dabbling in startups isn’t a carte-blanche license to do business as one pleases. Sequoia Capital, benefactor of firms like Google, Yahoo and Youtube, has been shaking up its portfolio companies by showing them a slideshow entitled “R.I.P. Good Times”. This galvanized its companies to control costs, focus on sales and retool its marketing pitch to clients.

The take-home lesson for startups is that recessions are a period of flux, where markets can change and those motivated enough to take advantage with a disciplined, focused approach, while others freeze in the face of uncertainty will ultimately come out on top.

Questions without answers are puzzling, and answers without questions are just baffling.

What then is one to make of modern search engines, which provide us with the answers to a nearly infinite catalogue of questions, scattered across the vastness of cyberspace?

Stephen Wolfram thinks he has the answer to our confusion. In his company blog, he announces the imminent arrival of the world’s first “answer engine”. Several pundits have given the demo of this world first a thumbs up, even saying it could be as important as google.

I think this is a fascinating development. Wolfram is the brilliant, if somewhat egocentric child prodigy who graduated from Cal Tech and went on to create the phenomenally successful Mathematica software now so common in schools. There is an incredible amount of promise behind Wolfram Alpha, and backed by the brilliance and financial muscle of Wolfram’s team, there is a lot of room for experimentation and error. I’m just cautious about Wolfram Alpha turning out to be another Quantum porn engine.

Much as I’d hate to admit it, the incessant buzz of the people around me, looking for their first job, has started to get to me.

The most popular job sites in Singapore are Jobstreet and JobsDB. I attended a JobsDB fair over the weekend and I was left feeling very unimpressed. It wasn’t any deficiency with organization or execution. The fair was managed exceptionally well. It was that exhibitors seemed to be from broadly 4 categories, namely insurance agencies, real estate agencies, educational institutions and government institutions, none of which interested me.

I came across Plaxo jobs while cleaning up my bookmarks today. It was well described in this Wired blog article. Imagine if you could leverage on your entire facebook contact list to search for a job, that in essence is the promise of Plaxo. It’s a really neat idea. I think it would help a lot for people to know a little about the social circle of the people they are hiring, or know where a job opportunity is coming from within their social circle. The social nature of the job search could also improve your chances of finding employment as your friends can be expected to help in whatever small way they can to refer you to the right job.

Another interesting site I’ve unearthed is philes. Again, tip to Wired. Wired’s article puts it succinctly. Jobaphiles is an “ebay for jobs” where potential employees can bid (lower) for a job compared to their peers. I think the idea will have limited traction in industries where salary levels aren’t very flexible. For example, most banks will pay standard remuneration packages that aren’t affected much by a candidate’s desired pay. However, in areas where contract work is concerned, this idea is a clear winner. The question of how successful it will be then becomes a question of how many short-term contract jobs are there in a recessionary environment.

Anyway these are interesting questions to ponder, but I’ve got to start submitting my own resumes now, so please excuse me.

What is innovation?

Click on the link above and you’ll get a surprisingly long list. I shall settle for “different from what was before in great or small ways.”

I think we’ve not really addressed the issue of innovation before even though this is a blog about entrepreneurship and innovation lies at the heart of this. Small things can make a big difference, and that is certainly one of the central lessons to take home about innovation.

Vik Singh, leader of Yahoo’s BOSS team recently found that out for himself when he took Twitter and combined it with Yahoo’s search engine. In his own words “Twitter as a ranking signal for search freshness may prove to be very useful if constructed properly.” Then, in under 100 lines of code, he created a search engine that provides news more up-to-date than what we’ve seen before. To put that in a little perspective, Windows 98 took 13 million lines of code to write.

Two lessons are to be learned here. One is that a little innovation goes a long way. Second, are search engines about to become commmoditized?

Sorry first of all that the first post of 2009 took so long in coming.
Some say that 2009 is the year of hope and change. After all, the much feared global financial system collapse did not materialize, the Middle-East , though not yet at a final solution, was at a tentative peace (at the turn of the year). George Bush was going to finish his term. All signs pointed towards a potentially good year. That was, alas, a vain hope.

Even in an industry as fueled by hope and optimism as web-based start-ups, a new search engine was always pushing the envelope. Murphy’s law states that what can go wrong, will go wrong. I can illustrate this simply by raising an example of a good idea that went badly. “Cuil”, a search engine loudly and widely touted as the google-killer, was unfortunately and very quickly brought to an ignoble death by *drumroll pls* porn.

Cuil started with a bang, attracting heavy media attention from the start. It helps if your own grandiose press release blatantly plays up your clear superiority at every single opportunity This media goodwill quickly evaporated though as journ0-bloggers and users alike discovered its shortcomings.

So forgive me for the pessimism but my 2009 is starting on a note of caution. Perhaps its best once in a while to sound a note of caution, so that we can all seek out sure footing for our endeavours as we embark on a brand new year. Good luck everyone.